reading notes

the most important thing

1. First-level thinking and second-level thinking

• Brokerage firms want you to think everyone’s capable of investing—at $10 per trade. Mutual fund companies want you to think they can do it
• collectively, they are the market. (every one is )
• it’s a zero-sum game, why others fail?
• Unconventionality shouldn’t be a goal in itself, but rather a way of thinking
• Nonconsensus forecasts

Darnedest, espoused

• asset prices immediately reflect the consensus view of the information’s significance
• consensus view and non-nonconsensus view. sharing the consensus view will make you likely to earn just
  an average return. To beat the market you must hold an idiosyncratic, or nonconsensus, view.
• Psychological influences

ramification

止跌信号

长下影线，有大资金进场
成交量下跌，空头力量耗尽
支撑点位，年线 / 历史低位
底背离
板块联动，同板块的其他股票是否企稳

止损

买入逻辑崩塌
设定止损点，12%

lof arbitrage

• applying found shares from found company, and selling shares in the market. it earns money from the price differences between the net asset value (NAV), and the price in the open market.
• nav, the actual value of funds, NAV= (Total Assets − Total Liabilities​) / Shares
• not suit for individual retail investors, usually done by instituational investors

etf

1. 初始投入 100 万，分 3、3、4 在 513630+515180+513500
2. 每次大盘下穿 ma120，6%时加 12 万在所跟踪的指数 3. 每月定投 3 万，在上个月表现最好的 etf 里，etf 池为： 医药 ETF-159929 /机器人 ETF-159530 /港股低波红利 ETF-513630/恒生科技ETF-513010/ 标普 500ETF-513500 /纳指 ETF 159941/

depending Ma120

• pe < 20, Dividend Yield > 3%
• waiting the price to drop -12% below Ma120

Trapezoidal Position Building

gradual Buy-in on a Downtrend, like at every 12%
if the price is 10$, then 10/1, 8.8/2, 7.74/3, 6,.8/4

• consider the market ma120, above ma120 => reduce price points
• price fuctuate in a controlable range, health PE
• Missed Opportunities. may end up buying fewer shares
• be discipined, avoid emotional painc during market fluctuations

Bollinger Bands

• touchs or breaks the upper / lower band, indicates overbought / oversold
• Band Squeeze (Volatility Breakout):

RSI

Relative Strength Index, measures the speed and change of price movements

• 80 typically overbought, meaning it may be due for a pullback. or strong upward momentum

• < 20 suggests oversold, or undervalued and might be set for a rebound

overbought or oversold could indicate emotional operations(a sign of pullback), like chasing price movements

• vs kdj
  • k primary line, d signal line, j moves more dramatically and measures extreme conditions
  • both of them indicate a sign of overbought or oversell. ksi represents emotional extremes. while rsi measures structual strength, and more relable
  • kdj is sensitive to short-term moves

MACD

• Bullish Cross (Golden Cross): MACD line crosses above the Signal line.
• Bearish Cross (Death Cross): MACD line crosses below the Signal line.
• Bullish Divergence 底背离: the price is making new lows, but the MACD is making higher lows. = downward momentum is weakening
• Bearish Divergence 顶背离: the price is making new highs, but the MACD is making lower highs. = upward momentum is weakening

Divergence

Price ÷ Earnings, P/E ratio 市盈率

how much investors willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.

• High P/E, Investors are willing to pay more. it represents high growth expectations, but can also mean overvalued
• Low P/E, Investors pay less. weak growth prospections, or undervalued

for example: P/E = 100(stock is $100) ÷ 5(its EPS is $5) = 20, $20 for every $1 of earnings

two types of pe

• (Trailing/static) P/E (TTM)
  • Uses past 12 months earnings.
• (Forward/dynmic) P/E
  • Uses forecast earnings for the next 12 months.

relative indicators

• PEG growth rate of pe
• Company sells products → customers pay $100 => PS, Price ÷ Sales
  • < 1 → very cheap
  • 1–3 → normal range

  • 5 → expensive

• After subtracting costs, company keeps $80 => PE, earnings
• Maybe the company actually only gets $60 cash in hand => PCF, Price ÷ Cash Flow
  • Low → stock may be undervalued
  • High → stock may be overvalued

compare within the same industry
consider the type of business. usually low in bank, real easte
compare with the company’s history

Price ÷ Book Value, PB ratio

Book Value = Total Assets – Total Liabilities, represents the company’s net assets
the ratio of market price to the company’s net assets.

• 1, market expects the company to earn more than just its asset value.

• =1, Market values the company roughly at its accounting value.
• <1, lower than the company’s net asset value. means undervalued or that the market has low expectations

Dividend Yield 股息

Annual Dividends per Share ÷ price per Share​
if a company pays $2 in annual dividends per share, and its stock is priced at $40, then *Dividend Yield = 2 / 40 * 100 = 5%*

how much money a company returns to its shareholders in the form of dividends relative to its stock price

• a high dividend yield can be attractive For income-focused investors
• a low dividend yield may be, if the company reinvests profits into growth opportunities instead of paying dividends

terminology

• 周期型 && 非周期性

  • 非周期性：食品、饮料、银行、保险、消费等，与衣食住行相关，不论经济发展如何都需要的行业
  • 周期性：随着经济周期盛衰大起大落的行业， 和国内或国际经济波动相关性较强。与国运关联较大。钢铁、有色、煤炭等大宗商品、船舶、机械等

• Engel's Coefficient refers to the proportion of household income that is spent on food. Engelobserved that as income increases, the percentage of income spent on food decreases, even if the absolute amount spent on food increases.

• 做空/空头Short Selling

  • 指投资者从券商或其他持有者借入资产（如股票、期货合约等），在市场上卖出，期望未来价格下跌时再以更低的价格买回资产归还给借出方，从而赚取价差利润
  • 空头挤压（Short Squeeze） 若股票价格上涨，空头投资者为了避免进一步损失，可能会被迫平仓（即买回股票），这种大量买回股票的行为会进一步推高价格，形成一种循环，使得股票价格在短时间内急剧上升，从而使空头投资者遭受更大的损失。

• Premium rate 溢价率

  • (市场价格-净值)/净值*100%, (1 - 0.8) / 0.8 = 0.25, 溢价率为 25%
  • 为正时：市场价格高于净值，反映出市场对该ETF的需求上涨。
  • 为负时：市场价格低于净值，反映出市场对该ETF的需求下降。
  • 市场价格 是通过交易所的实时交易价格产生

• 最大回撤

  • 在选定的时间周期内，找出资产价格的最高点（峰值）和随后出现的最低点（谷值）
  • (峰值-谷值)/谷值*100%, (100 - 80)/ 80 = 0.25, 回撤为 25%
  • 反映了在最不利情况下可能面临的最大损失

• Dividend Yield

• trading volume 换手 the buying and selling of shares between investors

• Amplitude 振幅

  • the range of price fluctuations of a stock
  • Amplitude = High Price−Low Price
  • A large amplitude signifies significant price fluctuations (high volatility), while a small amplitude indicates relatively stable price movement (low volatility).

• Structural Bull Market 结构性牛市 refers to a long-term upward trend in stock prices that is driven by fundamental changes in the economy or market structure.

M1&M2&M3

Refer to the total amount of money available in an economy. categorized based on liquidity, or how easily the money can be used for transactions.

• M1 Includes the most liquid forms of money, which can be quickly used for transactions.
• M2 Includes all of M1 plus near-money assets that are not as liquid but can still be converted to cash relatively easily.
• M3 Includes all of M2 plus larger, less liquid assets.

Federal Reserve System

Banks are required by the Federal Reserve to keep a certain amount of money (called reserves) in their accounts at the Fed to ensure they can cover withdrawals and other obligations.

• federal funds rate 联邦基金利率
  • applies to overnight loans between depository institutions (primarily banks) that have excess reserves and those that need additional reserves.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets a target range for the federal funds rate during its meetings (typically eight times a year). This rate is influenced through the Fed’s open market operations, such as buying or selling U.S. Treasury securities.
  • overnight loan, Sometimes, at the end of the business day, a bank might find that it has less than the required reserve amount. The bank with extra reserves can lend those reserves overnight to the bank that is short, at an interest rate known as the federal funds rate.

Federal Reserve System (Fed) adjusts federal funds rate

• rate cut lowering interest rates => reduce the cost of borrowing
• the effects of low interest rates
  • create jobs and reduce unemployment, as stimulating economic growth
  • lead to higher stock prices
    • as cheaper borrowing costs improve business profitability and growth prospects. this also make bonds less attractive, driving more investors toward stocks.
    • benefit Technology and Growth Stocks, lower borrowing costs make thoese stocks easier to fund expansion. Investors are also more willing to invest in companies that are expected to deliver strong future earnings when interest rates are low.
  • rise bond price.
    • newly issued bonds are issued with lower coupon rates because the overall cost of borrowing in the economy has decreased. they will offer lower yields after a rate cut. Bonds with higher interest rates (issued before the cut) become more attractive to investors, so the demand for these older bonds increases,
    • coupon rate is the interest rate paid by a bond issuer on the bond’s face value (par value) to bondholders.
  • increase inflation
    • Gold Prices Rise. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
  • weaker the U.S. dollar.
    • lower interest rates make dollar-denominated assets less attractive to foreign investors. investors may move capital to countries where interest rates are higher, seeking better returns on fixed-income investments.
    • but can benefit U.S. export. as cheaper U.S. dollar making American goods cheaper and more competitive in global markets
    • increase the cost of import, contributing to inflationary pressures, higher price and cheaper dollars
• rate rise
• the impact of high interest rates slows economic growth, dampens consumer and business spending, and can lead to volatility in both the bond and stock markets.
  • Higher rates can make consumers more cautious
  • opposite from the low rates
  • stronger U.S. dollar, attract foreign capital
  • cool inflation
  • captial flow from stock market to bond market or othe more stable markets
  • new bond

basic

Fund types

• Mutual Fund(共同基金) 专业的基金经理进行投资管理
  • 主动型基金：基金经理通过自身分析（包括技术分析和基本面分析）来选股和择时以取得市场超额收益
  • 混合型基金: 依赖基金经理的能力，仓位较为灵活随股市行情而波动
  • 被动型基金: 一般选取特定的指数作为跟踪对象，因此通常又被称为指数基金, 复制指数，与其保持一致，适合定投
  • 混合行业**: 含有两个行业以及以上的主动性基金
  • 灵活配置混合**: 不规定股票、债券、可转债、现金、其他资产的比例
• ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)
  • 上证指数：反映上证所上市公司股票整体表现的股价指数。
  • 科创：科技创新板，上证所上市。主要吸引的是在生物医药、新一代信息技术、人工智能、高端制造、新材料等领域具备创新能力的公司
  • 沪深300：上证券所和深证所上市的300只市值较大、流动性较好的股票组成，旨在反映中国A股市场的整体表现。相比上证，其反映的市场动态可能更集中在蓝筹股上，而上证指数则涵盖了更多中小型公司
  • 中概股：海外上市的中国公司，通常指中国公司在美国等海外证券市场（尤其是纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所）上市的股票。由于这些公司通常在中国开展主要业务，但选择在海外上市，因此被称为“中概股”（中国概念股）
  • 中概互联ETF：选取在美国和香港上市的中国互联网企业
  • 恒生指数：在香港联合交易所上市的最大、最具流动性的公司。恒生指数的目的是反映香港股市的整体表现，尤其是香港市场中的蓝筹股。
  • 恒生科技指数
  • 道琼斯工业平均指数：美国30家市值最大、流动性最好的公司组成
  • 标普500指数：美国500家市值最大、流动性最好的公司组成，是全球投资者中使用最广泛的市场基准之一。该指数的多样性和覆盖面使其成为衡量美国经济整体表现的重要指标
  • 纳斯达克综合指数：在纳斯达克交易所上市的科技股，以科技企业为主。
  • MSCI 摩根士丹利资本国际
  • MSCI全球指数
  • MSCI新兴市场指数
• Private Equity Fund(私募)
  • typically hold investments for 5 to 10 years
  • Hedge Fund(对冲)
• Closed-End Fund(封闭式)

bond types

bond types are categorized into different risk levels based on the issuer’s creditworthiness, financial stability

• First-Level Bonds 一级债券
  • Chinese Government Bonds, Policy Bank Bonds, Savings Bonds (储蓄国债)
• Second-Level Bonds 二级债券
• Third-Level Bonds 二级债券

market

• 一级市场

  • 政府或公司将新发行的股票、债券或其他证券出售给投资者，用于融资。投资者(机构投资者、个人投资者)在一级市场上直接从发行方购买证券，而不是从其他投资者手中购买
  • 政府通过发行国债筹集资金
  • 公司通过IPO集中交易所首次发行股票
  • 发行方式
    • IPO（首次公开募股）：公司首次在公开市场上发行股票。
    • 增发：公司已经上市，但需要额外融资，会通过发行新股或债券来进行增发。
    • 私募：公司通过非公开方式向特定的机构或个人发行股票或债券。

• 二级市场

  • 通过公开市场（如股票交易所）进行交易
  • 证券的价格由市场供求关系决定

• 三级市场

  • 通过经纪商网络或场外市场进行交易，为大宗交易服务
  • 公开显示在交易所的订单薄上，但也受监管机构的监管

• 四级市场

  • 机构投资者直接彼此交易，不通过中介或经纪商。避免了交易所和经纪商的费用
  • 主要服务于大宗交易，尤其是机构投资者间的跨资产类别交易
  • 不公开披露，更具隐私性，避免影响市场

• 场内 场内市场指的是在上海证券交易所等集中交易所进行的公开交易。

• 场外 OTC，Over-the-Counter Market** 通过经纪商、做市商或其他中介机构在不同地点进行。买卖双方通过协商确定价格和交易条件